All Picks
MLB · MoneylineLost
Miami Marlins
@
Tampa Bay Rays
Date
Sat, May 16
Time
8:10 PM
Venue
Tropicana Field
Spread
Rays ML
Odds
-144
Risk
MOD
PICK
Rays ML
-144 · 1 Unit
78%
❌ Loss
Miami Marlins 10, Tampa Bay Rays 5
-100.00u
The Edge
Martinez's elite 1.70 ERA at home against a road-struggling Marlins squad with a 2-8 ATS skid makes the Rays ML at -144 a justified moderate-favorite PICK with four concrete statistical edges aligned.
Key Factors
Pitcher ERA gap: Martinez 1.70 vs. Alcantara 3.90 — a 2.20-run delta that clears the 1.5+ threshold for a significant edge per methodology
Tampa Bay home record 15-4 (.789) vs. Miami road record 6-13 (.316) — a 47-point win-percentage gap that is among the sharpest home/road splits in the data
Rays ATS 14-5 (.737) at home vs. Marlins ATS 8-11 (.421) on the road — a 31-point cover-rate gap reinforcing the directional lean
Tampa Bay 7-3 ATS last 10 vs. Miami 2-8 ATS last 10 — Rays running hot, Marlins ice cold against the number