All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
New York Yankees
@
New York Mets
Date
Sat, May 16
Time
11:15 PM
Venue
Citi Field
Spread
Yankees ML
Odds
-125
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Yankees ML
-125 · 1 Unit
68%
The Edge
The Yankees' overwhelming offensive superiority and Mets' dreadful home ATS record create a clear directional lean, but Rodon's ugly ERA introduces enough starter-level risk to keep this a LEAN rather than a PICK.
Key Factors
Yankees team OPS 0.763 vs Mets 0.638 — a 125-point gap that is one of the largest offensive mismatches you will see in a single game
Yankees +2.1 run differential edge over Mets (NYY +1.6 avg margin vs NYM -0.5)
Mets are 7-15 ATS (.318) at home this season — one of the worst home ATS marks in the league
Yankees have scored 228 runs vs Mets 163, with 67 HR vs 37 HR — a power edge that Citi Field's 0.93 HR factor only partially neutralizes