All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Miami Marlins
@
Tampa Bay Rays
Date
Sun, May 17
Time
4:15 PM
Venue
Tropicana Field
Spread
Rays ML
Odds
-157
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Rays ML
-157 · 1 Unit
72%
The Edge
Rasmussen's clear pitching edge combined with Tampa Bay's dominant home performance makes the Rays ML a credible lean at -157, though yesterday's blowout loss and Miami's live bats cap this below PICK threshold.
Key Factors
Pitcher ERA gap: Rasmussen 3.16 vs Perez 4.94 — a 1.78-run delta that clears the 1.5+ significant-edge threshold
Tampa Bay home ATS record: 14-6 (.700) vs Miami road ATS record: 9-11 (.450) — a 25-point ATS gap
Team ERA: Rays 3.60 vs Marlins 4.18, and Opp OPS allowed: Rays 0.656 vs Marlins 0.679 — Rays pitching staff is superior top to bottom
Overall ATS win rate edge: Rays at .614 vs Marlins at .435 — an 18% gap cited as a key signal