All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Cincinnati Reds
@
Philadelphia Phillies
Date
Wed, May 20
Time
5:05 PM
Venue
Citizens Bank Park
Spread
Reds ML
Odds
+123
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Reds ML
+123 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
A LEAN on the Reds ML at +123 is justified by Abbott's clear pitching edge over a struggling Nola and Cincinnati's elite road ATS profile against a Phillies team that has been a historically poor ATS bet at home all season.
Key Factors
Andrew Abbott (4.21 ERA) vs Aaron Nola (5.91 ERA) — 1.70 ERA delta clearly favors Cincinnati's starter, meeting the 1.5+ threshold for a significant pitching edge
Cincinnati is 15-10 (.600) ATS on the road this season — elite road ATS performance
Philadelphia is only 8-18 (.308) ATS at home — one of the worst home ATS marks in the league, and 3-7 ATS as a home underdog/favorite combination
Cincinnati's overall ATS win rate (28-21, .571) outpaces Philadelphia's (16-33, .327) by +24%, a structural market edge