All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Cincinnati Reds
@
New York Yankees
Date
Sun, Jun 21
Time
5:35 PM
Venue
Yankee Stadium
Spread
Reds ML
Odds
-108
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Reds ML
-108 · 1 Unit
68%
The Edge
Burns vs Rodriguez is a clear pitching edge that, combined with Judge and Stanton absences, gives Cincinnati a lean as a near-even road favorite, but the Yankees' overall team quality gap and home environment prevent this from reaching PICK threshold.
Key Factors
Starting pitcher ERA delta of 2.14 (Burns 2.01 vs Rodriguez 4.15) — methodology flags 1.5+ as significant edge, this exceeds that threshold
Cincinnati is 22-15 (.595) ATS on the road this season — elite road ATS performance cited as a key split edge
Reds won yesterday 10-2 at this same venue, demonstrating live offensive capability against this Yankees staff
Yankees missing Aaron Judge (stress fracture, 10-DAY-IL) and Giancarlo Stanton (calf, 10-DAY-IL) — two of their most dangerous power bats removed from a lineup facing an elite starter