All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
New York Mets
@
Philadelphia Phillies
Date
Sun, Jun 21
Time
11:20 PM
Venue
Citizens Bank Park
Spread
Phillies ML
Odds
-205
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Phillies ML
-205 · 1 Unit
72%
The Edge
Wheeler's elite ERA gives a clear directional lean toward Philadelphia, but the -205 juice prices that edge almost entirely in and the Phillies' poor home ATS record prevents this from reaching PICK threshold.
Key Factors
Wheeler's 2.01 ERA vs Peterson's 5.91 ERA is a 3.90-run differential — well above the 1.5 threshold flagged as a significant edge in the methodology
Phillies are 41-35 (.539 win%) vs Mets 34-42 (.447), a meaningful 9-game separation in overall quality
Citizens Bank Park run factor 1.07 / HR factor 1.12 with 72°F clear weather and 8 mph wind blowing out to RF — conditions favor the team with more home runs (PHI 97 vs NYM 81)
Phillies are 22-19 at home SU vs Mets 16-24 on the road, and the Mets are on a L1 streak coming off a 3-15 blowout loss in this same park