All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Chicago Cubs
@
New York Mets
Date
Mon, Jun 22
Time
11:10 PM
Venue
Citi Field
Spread
Cubs ML
Odds
-122
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Cubs ML
-122 · 1 Unit
68%
The Edge
Imanaga vs a struggling Senga (9.00 ERA, 0-5) gives the Cubs a clear pitching edge backed by superior offense and run differential, but Senga's sample size uncertainty and the Cubs' poor overall ATS record keep this a LEAN rather than a PICK.
Key Factors
Starter ERA gap is enormous: Imanaga 4.26 vs Senga 9.00 — a 4.74-run differential that strongly favors the Cubs' side
Cubs hold a superior overall record (40-37, .519 win%) vs Mets (34-43, .442 win%) and better run differential (+0.3 vs -0.4)
Cubs team OPS (.738) significantly outpaces Mets (.669), and Cubs have scored 366 runs vs Mets' 311 — a 55-run gap on the season
Cubs are 11-8 (.579) ATS as road underdogs this season, showing genuine value when catching plus money