All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Miami Marlins
@
St. Louis Cardinals
Date
Sat, Jun 27
Time
12:15 AM
Venue
Busch Stadium
Spread
Marlins ML
Odds
-105
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Marlins ML
-105 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
LEAN Marlins ML — Meyer's pitching edge and Miami's hot ATS form are real, but the Cardinals' home advantage and superior home ATS record keep this from reaching PICK threshold.
Key Factors
Max Meyer is 8-0 with a 2.80 ERA vs McGreevy's 3-6, 3.35 ERA — a 0.55 ERA delta favoring Miami's starter significantly
Miami is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games, the hottest recent form signal in this matchup
Miami's team ERA (4.04) and WHIP (1.25) are both superior to St. Louis's team ERA (4.30) and WHIP (1.35), indicating a better overall pitching staff
Miami's opponent OPS allowed (0.682) is dramatically better than St. Louis's opponent OPS allowed (0.735), a 53-point gap favoring the Marlins' pitching