All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Miami Marlins
@
St. Louis Cardinals
Date
Sat, Jun 27
Time
11:15 PM
Venue
Busch Stadium
Spread
Cardinals ML
Odds
-143
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Cardinals ML
-143 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
Pallante's commanding ERA advantage over Gusto is the dominant factor, but Miami's hot streak and superior team pitching metrics cap this at a LEAN rather than a PICK.
Key Factors
Pallante (9-4, 3.59 ERA) vs Gusto (0-2, 6.00 ERA) — a 2.41 ERA delta well above the 1.5 threshold that signals a significant pitching edge
Cardinals hold a superior overall ATS win rate of 58.2% vs Marlins' 52.4% — a +6% edge per the data
Cardinals home ATS record is 24-18 (.571) and their home SU record is 22-20, showing meaningful home-field performance advantage
Cardinals as home underdog ATS is 36-23 (.610), and at -143 they are the favorite here — their home environment and pitching edge align