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MLB · Moneyline
Detroit Tigers
@
Pittsburgh Pirates
Date
Mon, Aug 17
Time
11:00 PM
Venue
PNC Park
Spread
Tigers ML
Odds
-104
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Tigers ML
-104 · 1 Unit
60%
The Edge
A lean toward the Tigers ML based on their superior pitching infrastructure and strong road underdog ATS history, but the modest starter edge for Pittsburgh and Detroit's injury-depleted lineup keep this firmly in LEAN territory.
Key Factors
Detroit team ERA 3.55 vs Pittsburgh 4.31 — a 0.76 gap favoring Tigers' overall pitching staff
Detroit opponent OPS allowed 0.678 vs Pittsburgh 0.715 — Tigers suppress opposing offenses more effectively all season
Detroit ATS as road underdog 34-17 (.667) — strong cover rate in underdog spots on the road
Mlodzinski ERA 3.79 is better than Valdez 4.26, but the gap (0.47) is modest and does not override Detroit's bullpen/staff-wide advantage