All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
St. Louis Cardinals
@
Cincinnati Reds
Date
Wed, Aug 19
Time
10:40 PM
Venue
Great American Ball Park
Spread
Reds ML
Odds
-148
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Reds ML
-148 · 1 Unit
72%
The Edge
Burns' elite ERA edge is the clearest signal in this game and earns a LEAN on Cincinnati, but STL's red-hot ATS form, recent head-to-head dominance, and CIN's poor home record cap this at a LEAN rather than a PICK.
Key Factors
Chase Burns has a 2.47 ERA vs Liberatore's 5.07 ERA — a 2.60-run gap that qualifies as a near-automatic lean on the better starter's team per methodology
Great American Ball Park has a 1.14 run factor and 1.22 HR factor with wind blowing out to RF at 8 mph — hitter-friendly conditions that favor the team with the elite arm keeping runs off the board
Cincinnati is the home team at -148, a moderate favorite in the sweet-spot EV zone (-110 to -170) where the model performs best
STL's team ERA is 3.99 vs CIN's 4.48, but tonight's individual starter gap dwarfs the team-level difference — Burns is pitching well above his team's average