All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
New York Yankees
@
Baltimore Orioles
Date
Wed, Aug 19
Time
10:35 PM
Venue
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Spread
Yankees ML
Odds
-118
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Yankees ML
-118 · 1 Unit
68%
The Edge
The Yankees carry a clear pitching edge and run differential advantage, but Baltimore's elite home underdog ATS record (.642) and key Yankees injuries keep this a LEAN rather than a PICK.
Key Factors
Starting pitcher ERA edge: Warren 4.42 vs Bassitt 5.11 — 0.69-run gap favoring NYY
Team ERA gap is significant: Yankees 3.24 vs Orioles 4.23, a full run of pitching superiority
Yankees outperform Orioles in overall run differential: NYY +0.7 vs BAL -0.3, a +1.0 edge
Yankees on a W2 streak including a 3-1 win over Baltimore yesterday; Orioles on L2 and 2-6 in the season series vs NYY