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MLB · MoneylineActive
Pittsburgh Pirates
@
Chicago Cubs
Date
Sun, Apr 12
Time
6:20 PM
Venue
Wrigley Field
Spread
Pirates ML
Odds
+113
Risk
MOD
PICK
Pirates ML
+113 · 1 Unit
72%
The Edge
Pittsburgh's commanding ATS dominance (8-2 last 10), superior overall record, active winning streak in this series, and plus-money price create enough of a multi-factor edge to back the Pirates ML.
Key Factors
Pirates are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs Cubs' 3-7 ATS last 10 — a 50-point gap in recent cover rate
Pittsburgh is 9-5 overall (.643 win%) vs Chicago's 6-8 (.429) — a 21-point gap in actual winning
Pirates have won both games of this series (Apr 10 and Apr 11) and enter on a W2 streak vs Cubs' L2 streak
Pittsburgh's team ERA (3.02) and opponent OPS allowed (0.639) are both better than Chicago's ERA (3.24) and opponent OPS (0.634), giving a slight pitching edge to the visitors
Pirates ML is available at +113 (underdog plus money), offering positive expected value given their superior record and ATS dominance