All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Colorado Rockies
@
Houston Astros
Date
Wed, Apr 15
Time
12:10 AM
Venue
Daikin Park
Spread
Rockies ML
Odds
+159
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Rockies ML
+159 · 1 Unit
57%
The Edge
The plus-money price on Colorado is attractive given Houston's historically bad team ERA and long losing streak, but Lorenzen's 8.36 ERA caps confidence and makes this a lean rather than a strong pick.
Key Factors
Colorado ATS overall 10-6 (.625) vs Houston 7-10 (.412) — a 21% gap in ATS win rate favoring the Rockies
Houston on an L8 losing streak with a team ERA of 6.50 and WHIP of 1.71 — among the worst pitching marks in the data
Colorado ML at +159 offers plus-money value on a team whose win percentage (37.5%) is actually slightly better than Houston's (35.3%)
Houston's bullpen is compromised with Josh Hader (15-day IL, biceps) and Bennett Sousa (15-day IL, oblique) both unavailable, increasing late-inning vulnerability