All Picks
MLB · MoneylineActive
Washington Nationals
@
Pittsburgh Pirates
Date
Thu, Apr 16
Time
4:35 PM
Venue
PNC Park
Spread
Pirates ML
Odds
-169
Risk
MOD
PICK
Pirates ML
-169 · 1 Unit
73%
The Edge
Pittsburgh's dominant team ERA and pitching infrastructure make them the clear side at a manageable -169 price in a neutral park with favorable 72°F conditions.
Key Factors
Pirates team ERA 3.25 vs Nationals team ERA 5.89 — a 2.64 differential that dwarfs any other factor in this game
Pirates opponent OPS allowed is .658 vs Nationals opponent OPS allowed of .815 — Pittsburgh's pitching staff is suppressing opposing offenses at an elite level
Pirates are 7-3 ATS last 10 games and hold a +1.7 run differential edge over Washington on the season
Pirates are 6-3 SU at home (.667) with Braxton Ashcraft posting a 2.12 ERA vs Foster Griffin at 1.76 — starter ERAs are close but Pittsburgh's team pitching depth is far superior