All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
St. Louis Cardinals
@
Houston Astros
Date
Sat, Apr 18
Time
12:10 AM
Venue
Daikin Park
Spread
Cardinals ML
Odds
+119
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Cardinals ML
+119 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
Cardinals ML at +119 offers underdog value backed by meaningfully better pitching metrics and a superior record, though Houston's offensive advantage and home ATS edge keep this a lean rather than a strong pick.
Key Factors
Cardinals team ERA 4.94 vs Astros team ERA 6.01 — a full run gap favoring STL pitching
Cardinals team WHIP 1.45 vs Astros team WHIP 1.67 — STL pitching staff allows fewer baserunners
Cardinals ATS last 10 is 5-5 vs Astros 2-8 — HOU has been a consistent ATS disappointment recently
Cardinals at +119 ML — getting plus money with the better record (10-8 vs 8-12) and better run prevention metrics represents positive expected value