All Picks
MLB · MoneylineLost
Tampa Bay Rays
@
Pittsburgh Pirates
Date
Sat, Apr 18
Time
8:05 PM
Venue
PNC Park
Spread
Pirates ML
Odds
-171
Risk
MOD
PICK
Pirates ML
-171 · 1 Unit
74%
❌ Loss
Tampa Bay Rays 8, Pittsburgh Pirates 7
-100.00u
The Edge
Pittsburgh's superior pitching infrastructure (3.16 ERA, .647 opp OPS) combined with strong home performance and a meaningful run differential edge justifies a lean on the Pirates ML, though the -171 price keeps this out of high-confidence territory.
Key Factors
Pirates team ERA 3.16 vs Rays team ERA 4.44 — a 1.28-run gap, a meaningful staff-wide edge
Pirates opponent OPS 0.647 vs Rays opponent OPS 0.697 — Pittsburgh is suppressing opposing offenses at a significantly higher rate
Pirates +1.5 run differential edge over the Rays (+1.2 vs -0.3 avg margin) — sustained team quality gap across the season
Pirates home ATS record 7-4 (.636) and as home underdog 8-3 (.727) — strong home cover history, and Pittsburgh is the favorite here at -171