All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Cincinnati Reds
@
Tampa Bay Rays
Date
Tue, Apr 21
Time
10:40 PM
Venue
Tropicana Field
Spread
Reds ML
Odds
-112
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Reds ML
-112 · 1 Unit
72%
The Edge
Burns' ERA advantage, Cincinnati's elite road ATS record, and the Reds' superior team pitching make them the lean at a near-even moneyline price of -112.
Key Factors
Chase Burns 2.42 ERA vs Steven Matz 3.80 ERA — a 1.38-run ERA delta favoring Cincinnati's starter
Cincinnati 9-2 (.818) ATS on the road — elite road performance, best split in this matchup
Reds on a 4-game win streak including a 6-1 blowout of Tampa Bay on Apr 20 in the same venue
Cincinnati team ERA 3.36 vs Tampa Bay team ERA 4.54 — a 1.18-run gap favoring Reds pitching staff overall