All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
St. Louis Cardinals
@
Miami Marlins
Date
Wed, Apr 22
Time
4:10 PM
Venue
loanDepot park
Spread
Cardinals ML
Odds
+109
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Cardinals ML
+109 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
Cardinals ML at +109 offers underdog value against a Marlins team with a poor home ATS record (.400) and a weaker overall ATS profile, making this a slight lean on the plus-money side despite Miami's team pitching advantage.
Key Factors
Cardinals are moneyline underdogs at +109 — only need to win ~48% to be profitable, and they enter 14-9 (.609 win%) vs Miami's 11-13 (.458)
Cardinals ATS overall 13-10 (.565) vs Marlins 9-15 (.375) — a 19% gap in ATS win rate favoring St. Louis
Marlins are only 6-9 (.400) ATS at home this season, a clear fade signal for the home favorite
Cardinals starter Kyle Leahy (5.21 ERA) vs Janson Junk (4.50 ERA) — neither is elite, but Miami's team ERA (4.05) and WHIP (1.26) are meaningfully better than STL's (4.78 / 1.41), partially offsetting the pitching edge