All Picks
MLB · MoneylineWon
New York Yankees
@
Houston Astros
Date
Sat, Apr 25
Time
12:10 AM
Venue
Daikin Park
Spread
Yankees ML
Odds
-149
Risk
MOD
PICK
Yankees ML
-149 · 1 Unit
78%
✅ Winner
New York Yankees 12, Houston Astros 4
+67.11u
The Edge
Warren's dominant ERA advantage over a struggling McCullers, combined with the Yankees' elite team pitching and elite road ATS record, makes New York a clear moneyline value at -149.
Key Factors
Starting pitcher ERA delta: Warren 2.49 vs McCullers 6.20 — a 3.71-run gap, well above the 1.5+ threshold for a significant edge
Team ERA gap: Yankees 3.07 vs Astros 5.81, with opponent OPS allowed at 0.617 vs 0.811 — Yankees pitching staff is elite, Astros is a liability
Yankees road ATS record: 8-4 (.667) on the road this season, and 6-4 ATS in last 10 overall vs Astros' 3-7 ATS last 10
Win% and run differential: Yankees 16-9 (.640) with +1.5 avg margin on a W6 streak vs Astros 10-16 (.385) with -0.5 avg margin