All Picks
MLB · MoneylineWon
New York Yankees
@
Houston Astros
Date
Sat, Apr 25
Time
11:10 PM
Venue
Daikin Park
Spread
Yankees ML
Odds
-156
Risk
MOD
PICK
Yankees ML
-156 · 1 Unit
78%
✅ Winner
New York Yankees 8, Houston Astros 3
+64.10u
The Edge
The Yankees ML at -156 is justified by a dominant pitching edge at both the starter and team ERA level, elite road ATS performance, and a meaningful run differential gap that makes them the clear side at a moderate price.
Key Factors
Starter ERA gap: Weathers 3.18 vs Burrows 6.75 — a 3.57-run differential that far exceeds the 1.5+ threshold for a significant pitching edge
Yankees team ERA 3.11 vs Astros 5.97 — a 2.86-run gap indicating a systemic pitching superiority, not just a one-start anomaly
Yankees 9-4 (.692) ATS on the road this season vs Astros only 6-8 (.429) ATS at home — elite road team exploiting a weak home cover unit
Yankees +2.6 run differential edge overall, 17-9 record (.654) vs Astros 10-17 (.370), and on a 7-3 ATS run last 10 games