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NHL · Moneyline
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
Montreal Canadiens
Date
Sun, Apr 26
Time
11:00 PM
Venue
Bell Centre
Spread
Canadiens ML
Odds
-105
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Canadiens ML
-105 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
Montreal's elite home underdog ATS record, team goaltending edge, and hot ATS form provide a directional lean, but Vasilevskiy's individual superiority and Tampa's strong road record keep this firmly in LEAN territory
Key Factors
Montreal ATS 7-3 last 10 games and .585 overall vs Tampa's .524 — a +6% ATS win rate edge
Montreal team SV% 89.2% (#23) vs Tampa's 88.0% (#28) — a +1.2% team crease quality gap
Montreal +0.66 goal differential edge and scores 3.00 goals/game vs Tampa's 2.67
Montreal as home underdog ATS: 44-24 (.647) — elite cover rate in this exact role; Tampa as road favorite ATS: 19-22 (.463) — below breakeven