All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Houston Astros
@
Baltimore Orioles
Date
Wed, Apr 29
Time
10:35 PM
Venue
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Spread
Orioles ML
Odds
-126
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Orioles ML
-126 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
Baltimore's superior team pitching, Houston's dismal road record, and home-underdog ATS edge provide a directional lean toward the Orioles, but Bassitt's ugly ERA and Houston's stronger offense keep this firmly in LEAN territory.
Key Factors
Baltimore team ERA 4.28 vs Houston team ERA 5.96 — a 1.68-run gap favoring the Orioles' pitching staff overall
Houston is 3-11 SU on the road this season (.214 road win pct), one of the worst road records in the data
Houston road ATS record is 4-10 (.286), well below Baltimore's home underdog ATS mark of 6-4 (.600)
Baltimore won the series opener 5-3 yesterday and carries a W1 streak vs Houston's L1; Orioles also hold an 8% ATS win rate edge overall