All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Detroit Tigers
@
Atlanta Braves
Date
Wed, Apr 29
Time
11:15 PM
Venue
Truist Park
Spread
Braves ML
Odds
+123
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Braves ML
+123 · 1 Unit
72%
The Edge
Atlanta ML at +123 is a LEAN — the Braves' superior home record, run differential, and ATS momentum offer genuine value against a mispriced line, but Atlanta's injury-depleted pitching staff and Ritchie's small sample size prevent this from reaching PICK threshold.
Key Factors
Atlanta run differential +2.3 vs Detroit +0.3 — a full 2.0-run team quality gap on the season
Braves are 8-2 ATS last 10 games; Tigers are 4-6 ATS last 10 — a 40-point ATS win-rate gap in recent form
Atlanta is 11-5 at home (.688) while Detroit is 5-13 on the road (.278) — an extreme home/road split favoring the Braves
Atlanta team ERA 3.09 / WHIP 1.13 vs Detroit ERA 4.01 / WHIP 1.34 — Braves pitching staff is meaningfully superior across the board, and JR Ritchie (1-0, 2.57) matches up favorably against Skubal (3-2, 2.72)