All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Cincinnati Reds
@
Pittsburgh Pirates
Date
Fri, May 1
Time
10:45 PM
Venue
PNC Park
Spread
Reds ML
Odds
+113
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Reds ML
+113 · 1 Unit
68%
The Edge
Cincinnati's elite road ATS record, superior overall record, and Pittsburgh's historic recent collapse create enough directional signal to lean the Reds ML at plus money, but Keller's ERA advantage and Pittsburgh's stronger pitching metrics keep this a LEAN rather than a PICK.
Key Factors
Cincinnati is 10-3 (.769) ATS on the road this season — elite road performance that is the strongest single split in this matchup
Reds are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall vs Pirates' 3-7 ATS last 10 — a 40-point gap in recent cover rate
Pittsburgh is on a 5-game losing streak and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games, including three straight losses to STL
Cincinnati is +113 moneyline underdog despite holding a superior overall record (20-11 vs 16-16) and a higher ATS win rate (64.5% vs 53.1%)