All Picks
NHL · Moneyline
Tampa Bay Lightning
@
Montreal Canadiens
Date
Fri, May 1
Time
11:00 PM
Venue
Bell Centre
Spread
Canadiens ML
Odds
-105
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Canadiens ML
-105 · 1 Unit
68%
The Edge
Montreal ML is a LEAN — the home underdog ATS profile, team goaltending edge, and recent form are real, but Vasilevskiy's individual quality prevents this from reaching PICK threshold in a near-even moneyline matchup.
Key Factors
Montreal team SV% is 90.3% (#11) vs Tampa's 88.0% (#29) — a 2.3-point gap indicating a structurally better crease situation at the team level
Montreal is 7-3 ATS last 10 games, running significantly hotter than Tampa's 5-5 ATS run
Montreal as home underdog ATS record is 44-24 (.647) — elite underdog cover rate in this exact spot
Montreal holds a +0.40 goal differential edge and scores 2.80 goals/game vs Tampa's 2.60, with a dominant 56.8% faceoff rate vs Tampa's 43.2%