All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Philadelphia Phillies
@
Miami Marlins
Date
Mon, May 4
Time
10:40 PM
Venue
loanDepot park
Spread
Marlins ML
Odds
-108
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Marlins ML
-108 · 1 Unit
68%
The Edge
Junk's ERA advantage over a struggling Nola, Miami's superior team pitching metrics, and the Marlins' hot 7-3 ATS run in a pitcher-friendly dome provide a lean toward Miami, but the near-even moneyline and Philadelphia's recent offensive explosion cap this at a LEAN rather than a PICK.
Key Factors
Starter ERA gap: Junk 3.00 vs Nola 6.03 — a 3.03-run differential, well above the 1.5+ threshold for a meaningful edge
Miami team ERA 3.95 vs Philadelphia team ERA 4.75, with Miami's opponent OPS (0.657) far better than Philadelphia's (0.761)
Miami 7-3 ATS last 10 games vs Philadelphia 3-7 ATS last 10 — Marlins running hot, Phillies cold
loanDepot Park HR factor 0.88 and pitcher-friendly humidor suppresses Philadelphia's primary offensive weapon (35 HR vs Miami's 25) and neutralizes their best edge