All Picks
MLB · MoneylineWon
Baltimore Orioles
@
New York Yankees
Date
Mon, May 4
Time
11:05 PM
Venue
Yankee Stadium
Spread
Yankees ML
Odds
-246
Risk
MOD
PICK
Yankees ML
-246 · 1 Unit
78%
✅ Winner
Baltimore Orioles 1, New York Yankees 12
+40.65u
The Edge
The starter ERA gap, team pitching superiority, home/road split advantage, and live series dominance combine for four concrete edges that justify a PICK on the Yankees ML despite the heavy price.
Key Factors
Starter ERA gap: Schlittler 1.51 vs Baz 4.50 — a 2.99 differential, well above the 1.5+ threshold flagged as a significant edge
Yankees team ERA 3.01 vs Orioles team ERA 4.76, and opponent OPS allowed 0.622 vs 0.796 — systemic pitching dominance top to bottom
Yankees 11-5 at home (.688) vs Orioles 6-10 on the road (.375) — a 31-point win-rate gap in the most home/road-sensitive sport
Yankees have outscored Baltimore 27-8 across the prior three games of this exact series, with Baltimore on an L4 streak and the Yankees on a W3 streak