All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Milwaukee Brewers
@
St. Louis Cardinals
Date
Mon, May 4
Time
11:45 PM
Venue
Busch Stadium
Spread
Brewers ML
Odds
-118
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Brewers ML
-118 · 1 Unit
68%
The Edge
The pitching matchup strongly favors Milwaukee with Patrick's 2.57 ERA against Leahy's 5.52, but Cardinals' hot ATS form and power advantage keep this a LEAN rather than a PICK at -118.
Key Factors
Starting pitcher ERA gap: Patrick 2.57 vs Leahy 5.52 — a 2.95 differential, well above the 1.5 threshold flagged as significant
Milwaukee team ERA 3.56 vs St. Louis 4.54 — Brewers have the superior pitching staff overall, supporting bullpen depth advantage
Brewers +1.4 run differential vs Cardinals 0.0 — meaningful team quality gap indicating Milwaukee outscores opponents more consistently
Milwaukee 10-5 ATS (.667) on the road this season — elite road ATS performance adds value at -118 moneyline