All Picks
MLB · MoneylineLost
Baltimore Orioles
@
Miami Marlins
Date
Tue, May 5
Time
10:40 PM
Venue
loanDepot park
Spread
Marlins ML
Odds
-136
Risk
MOD
PICK
Marlins ML
-136 · 1 Unit
76%
❌ Loss
Baltimore Orioles 9, Miami Marlins 7
-100.00u
The Edge
Alcantara's dominant ERA advantage over Bassitt, backed by Miami's superior team pitching metrics and a red-hot 7-3 ATS run, makes the Marlins ML a credible PICK at a moderate -136 price.
Key Factors
Starter ERA gap: Alcantara 3.04 vs. Bassitt 5.46 — a 2.42-run differential, well above the 1.5+ threshold flagged as a significant edge
Miami team ERA 3.86 vs. Baltimore team ERA 4.96, with opponent OPS allowed of 0.653 vs. 0.802 — Marlins pitching staff is meaningfully superior across the board
Miami 7-3 ATS last 10 games vs. Baltimore 3-7 ATS last 10 — Marlins running hot, Orioles ice cold
Baltimore on a 5-game losing streak, outscored badly (1-12, 3-11, 4-9, 2-7, 5-11 in last 5), while Miami's losses have been competitive (0-1, 2-7, 5-6) with multiple covers