All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Cincinnati Reds
@
Chicago Cubs
Date
Tue, May 5
Time
11:40 PM
Venue
Wrigley Field
Spread
Cubs ML
Odds
-168
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Cubs ML
-168 · 1 Unit
72%
The Edge
Chicago is the clear team-quality side with superior pitching, offense, home dominance, and a better starter, but at -168 the price is steep enough and Cincinnati's road ATS resilience real enough to keep this a LEAN rather than a PICK.
Key Factors
Cubs team ERA 3.89 vs Reds 4.52 — a 0.63 gap — and WHIP 1.19 vs 1.50 reflects a meaningfully better pitching staff overall
Cubs team OPS .783 vs Reds .692 and BA .259 vs .220 — Chicago's offense is significantly more dangerous, scoring 190 runs vs 145 for Cincinnati
Cubs are 15-5 at home this season (.750 home win pct) and riding a 6-game win streak; Reds are on a 4-game losing streak
Starter ERA edge: Taillon at 4.41 ERA (2-1) vs Abbott at 5.97 ERA (1-2) — Abbott has been poor and is a liability on the mound