All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Cleveland Guardians
@
Toronto Blue Jays
Date
Fri, Apr 24
Time
11:07 PM
Venue
Rogers Centre
Spread
Guardians ML
Odds
-131
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Guardians ML
-131 · 1 Unit
68%
The Edge
The pitching matchup strongly favors Cleveland with Williams' 2.12 ERA against Scherzer's 7.16, but early-season small samples and Toronto's offensive BA edge keep this a LEAN rather than a full PICK.
Key Factors
Starter ERA gap of 5.04 runs (Williams 2.12 vs Scherzer 7.16) — well above the 1.5 threshold flagged as a significant edge
Cleveland's overall ATS record is 15-11 (.577) vs Toronto's 8-16 (.333) — a 24% gap in ATS win rate
Toronto is 4-8 (.333) ATS at home this season, a clear fade signal for the home side
Cleveland has a better team ERA (4.00 vs 4.46) and WHIP (1.26 vs 1.32), supporting a stronger overall pitching unit behind Williams