All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Detroit Tigers
@
Cincinnati Reds
Date
Fri, Apr 24
Time
10:40 PM
Venue
Great American Ball Park
Spread
Tigers ML
Odds
-136
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Tigers ML
-136 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
Valdez's clear ERA advantage and Detroit's strong offensive metrics make the Tigers a credible LEAN as a moderate underdog at +113, but Cincinnati's home environment and ATS momentum cap this below PICK threshold.
Key Factors
Pitcher ERA delta of 2.54 (Valdez 3.30 vs Abbott 5.84) exceeds the 1.5 threshold flagged as a significant edge — strongest factor in any MLB game
Detroit carries superior team offense: .717 OPS and .246 BA vs Cincinnati's .642 OPS and .205 BA, with 114 runs scored vs 97
Detroit road ATS as underdog: 5-3 (.625), showing they cover at a strong rate when getting plus money
Detroit opponent OPS allowed (0.660) is better than Cincinnati's (0.681), suggesting Detroit's pitching staff has been more effective at suppressing opposing offenses