All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Colorado Rockies
@
New York Mets
Date
Fri, Apr 24
Time
11:10 PM
Venue
Citi Field
Spread
Rockies ML
Odds
+189
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Rockies ML
+189 · 1 Unit
58%
The Edge
A LEAN on the Rockies ML is justified by their strong underdog ATS history, superior offense, and the Mets' brutal home ATS record, but Lorenzen's 7.48 ERA is a serious red flag that caps confidence well below PICK territory.
Key Factors
Colorado ATS as underdog: 16-10 (.615) vs Mets ATS at home: 3-9 (.250) — a massive 36.5-point gap in cover rate
Colorado team OPS .719 vs Mets team OPS .635 — Rockies have a clear offensive edge on paper
Colorado has scored 108 runs vs Mets' 88 runs this season despite similar game counts
Mets missing Francisco Lindor (10-day IL), Jorge Polanco (10-day IL), and Mike Tauchman (surgery) — significant lineup damage at SS and 2B