All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Pittsburgh Pirates
@
Milwaukee Brewers
Date
Fri, Apr 24
Time
11:40 PM
Venue
American Family Field
Spread
Pirates ML
Odds
-136
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Pirates ML
-136 · 1 Unit
65%
The Edge
Pittsburgh's superior pitching metrics and Milwaukee's injury-depleted lineup provide a modest directional lean toward the Pirates ML at -136, but the thin ERA gap between starters and small-sample caveats keep this firmly a LEAN rather than a PICK.
Key Factors
Pittsburgh team ERA 3.45 vs Milwaukee team ERA 3.98 — a 0.53 gap favoring Pirates pitching staff overall
Pirates opponent OPS allowed is 0.663 vs Brewers opponent OPS allowed of 0.714 — Pirates pitching suppresses opposing offenses more effectively
Pittsburgh road ATS record 7-5 (.583) matches Milwaukee home ATS record 7-5 (.583) — no home-field ATS edge for the Brewers
Milwaukee is dealing with more impactful injuries: Yelich (LF, IL), Chourio (CF, IL), and Vaughn (1B, IL) strip key lineup pieces, weakening a Brewers offense already posting a lower team OPS (0.710) than Pittsburgh (0.718)