All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Colorado Rockies
@
New York Mets
Date
Sat, Apr 25
Time
8:10 PM
Venue
Citi Field
Spread
Rockies ML
Odds
+169
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Rockies ML
+169 · 1 Unit
60%
The Edge
Colorado's ATS dominance and the Mets' historically poor home ATS record create a lean toward the Rockies ML, but the heavy underdog price (+169) and Colorado's shredded pitching staff prevent this from reaching PICK threshold.
Key Factors
Colorado ATS overall: 17-10 (.630) vs Mets ATS overall: 9-17 (.346) — a 28-point gap in ATS win rate
Mets are 3-10 (.231) ATS at home this season — one of the worst home ATS marks in MLB
Colorado's team OPS (0.717) and BA (.252) significantly outpace the Mets' offense (OPS .636, BA .230), and COL has scored 112 runs vs NYM's 91
Mets starter Kodai Senga is 0-3 with an 8.83 ERA — historically bad, and even Quintana's 6.23 ERA represents a meaningful ERA delta favoring Colorado's side of the matchup