All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Pittsburgh Pirates
@
Milwaukee Brewers
Date
Sat, Apr 25
Time
11:10 PM
Venue
American Family Field
Spread
Pirates ML
Odds
+119
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Pirates ML
+119 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
Pittsburgh gets a LEAN as a plus-money underdog given superior pitching metrics, offensive edge, elite road underdog ATS history, and a depleted Milwaukee roster — but confidence stops short of a PICK given small sample warnings and home field.
Key Factors
Pittsburgh team ERA 3.32 vs Milwaukee 3.98 — a 0.66 gap favoring Pirates pitching staff overall
Pirates OPS .716 vs Brewers .687 and BA .246 vs .233 — clear offensive edge
Mitch Keller ERA 2.79 vs Jacob Misiorowski ERA 3.04 — starter edge to Pittsburgh
Pirates 8-5 ATS on the road (.615) and 9-4 ATS as road underdog (.692) — elite road underdog cover rate
Milwaukee on L3 streak, just got shut out 0-6 by this same Pittsburgh team yesterday, and missing Yelich, Chourio, and Vaughn to injury