All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Detroit Tigers
@
Cincinnati Reds
Date
Sat, Apr 25
Time
11:15 PM
Venue
Great American Ball Park
Spread
Reds ML
Odds
-108
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Reds ML
-108 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
Cincinnati's elite home ATS record and red-hot 8-2 last-10 run offer a lean, but Singer's ERA liability vs. Flaherty's superior numbers keeps this from reaching PICK threshold — lean Reds ML on home edge and ATS momentum.
Key Factors
Reds are 8-2 ATS last 10 games vs. Tigers' 5-5, a +17% ATS win rate edge for Cincinnati
Detroit is 4-11 SU on the road (.267) and 5-10 ATS away (.333), one of the worst road ATS marks in the data
Great American Ball Park has a 1.14 run factor and 1.22 HR factor with 8 mph wind blowing out to RF — hitter-friendly conditions favor the home team's lineup
Reds are 7-6 as home favorites ATS (.538) and 12-7 as home underdogs (.632); Cincinnati wins at home regardless of role