All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Cleveland Guardians
@
Toronto Blue Jays
Date
Sun, Apr 26
Time
5:37 PM
Venue
Rogers Centre
Spread
Guardians ML
Odds
+113
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Guardians ML
+113 · 1 Unit
60%
The Edge
A LEAN on Cleveland ML at +113 is justified by their strong underdog ATS record (.588) and Toronto's historically poor home ATS performance (.357), but Cecconi's ugly ERA keeps this well short of a PICK.
Key Factors
Cleveland ATS win rate is .571 vs Toronto's .346 — a 22% gap flagged as a key signal
Toronto is only 5-9 (.357) ATS at home this season, and 1-7 (.125) ATS as a home underdog — a severe fade signal
Cleveland is 10-7 (.588) ATS as an underdog, directly applicable here at +113
Slade Cecconi's 6.20 ERA is a liability, but Toronto's rotation is also depleted (Berrios on IL, Yesavage on IL) and Corbin's 0-0 record with 3.68 ERA is a very small sample with unknown reliability