All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Miami Marlins
@
San Francisco Giants
Date
Sun, Apr 26
Time
8:05 PM
Venue
Oracle Park
Spread
Giants ML
Odds
-136
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Giants ML
-136 · 1 Unit
65%
The Edge
Roupp's clear ERA advantage and Oracle Park's pitcher-friendly environment give the Giants a lean at a moderate price of -136, but SF's poor home ATS record and Miami's superior offense keep this from reaching PICK threshold.
Key Factors
Pitcher ERA delta: Roupp 2.28 vs Meyer 3.96 — a 1.68-run gap favoring the Giants starter
Oracle Park run factor 0.93 and HR factor 0.82 with HIGH impact rating amplifies the advantage of the superior pitcher
Giants team ERA 3.86 is better than Marlins' 3.99, and SF's opponent OPS allowed (0.694) vs MIA's offense (0.731 OPS) is a manageable matchup
SF on a W1 streak, coming off a 6-2 win in this same series, with home field advantage at a park where they play well