All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
St. Louis Cardinals
@
Pittsburgh Pirates
Date
Tue, Apr 28
Time
10:40 PM
Venue
PNC Park
Spread
Pirates ML
Odds
-156
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Pirates ML
-156 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
Pittsburgh's elite team pitching metrics and home-underdog ATS profile provide a lean, but the unknown Pirates starter and Cruz injury introduce enough uncertainty to keep this below PICK threshold.
Key Factors
Pirates team ERA is 3.36 vs Cardinals 4.77 — a 1.41 gap that approaches the 1.5 threshold for a significant pitching edge
Pirates opponent OPS is 0.640 vs Cardinals opponent OPS of 0.747 — a 107-point gap indicating Pittsburgh's staff suppresses opposing offenses far more effectively
Pirates team WHIP 1.22 vs Cardinals 1.22 — Pirates hold a +1.2 run differential edge and outscore opponents at +0.7 avg margin vs Cardinals -0.5
Pirates are 10-5 ATS (.667) as home underdogs and hold home ATS record of 8-6 (.571), with STL's starter Kyle Leahy posting a 5.63 ERA — a known liability on the mound