All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Seattle Mariners
@
Minnesota Twins
Date
Tue, Apr 28
Time
11:40 PM
Venue
Target Field
Spread
Twins ML
Odds
+104
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Twins ML
+104 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
Lean Twins ML as a live underdog at +104 given their strong home ATS record and Seattle's historically bad road ATS performance, but the Mariners' superior team pitching metrics and the recency of Minnesota's blowout win cap this at a LEAN.
Key Factors
Twins are 8-6 ATS at home (.571) while Mariners are 2-11 ATS on the road (.154) — a 41-point ATS win-rate gap in Minnesota's favor
Twins ML underdog at +104 with an 8-6 home SU record; Seattle is the favorite at -126 despite a 4-9 road SU record
Joe Ryan's ERA (3.90) is 0.46 better than Logan Gilbert's (4.36), a modest but real pitching edge for the home side
Minnesota has scored 143 runs this season vs Seattle's 122, with a slightly better team OPS (0.711 vs 0.698) and lower opponent OPS (0.722 vs 0.730)