All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Houston Astros
@
Baltimore Orioles
Date
Tue, Apr 28
Time
10:35 PM
Venue
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Spread
Orioles ML
Odds
-143
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Orioles ML
-143 · 1 Unit
60%
The Edge
The Orioles' superior team pitching metrics and home-field edge provide a lean, but Baz's poor ERA against Teng's strong ERA caps confidence well below PICK threshold — this is a directional lean only.
Key Factors
Baltimore team ERA 4.33 vs Houston team ERA 5.97 — a 1.64-run gap favoring Orioles pitching staff overall
Baltimore team WHIP 1.39 vs Houston team WHIP 1.65 — Orioles pitching allows fewer baserunners per inning
Orioles opponent OPS 0.759 vs Astros opponent OPS 0.831 — Baltimore's pitching suppresses opposing offenses more effectively
Orioles are 6-4 ATS as underdogs (.600) and 7-8 SU at home — home-field edge with a team that covers well when not favored